How Accurate Are Meteorologists?
By Mercedes Mesman on January 31, 2018
As winter comes to an end, or is just getting starting, it has come to my attention that the main topic of conversation during this time of year always seems to be the weather. Everyone knows that it is practically a tradition to bash the weatherman for “never getting it right.” But how accurate are meteorologists in reality?
Despite what you may think, forecasting skills have steadily increased over the past 50 years. The flagship computer model used by U.S. forecasters now predicts large-scale weather features eight days out with the same accuracy as five-day forecasts back in the 1980s.
The average highs and lows for any given day are based on statistics for a 30-year period, which are recalculated each decade as part of longstanding meteorological practice around the world. As our climate gradually warms, the averages are going up.
In general, winter nights are warming more dramatically than summer days. Drought-stricken areas are heating up especially fast since dry ground warms the air more quickly.
Even in today’s sophisticated forecast models, small errors grow over time, so it is better to think of that eight-day local forecast for 65-degree days as a balmy week in the 60s.
Small-scale features, such as thunderstorms, are still a challenge to predict far in advance because it is impossible to monitor every inch of air with a weather station.
There are over 11,000 observation stations across the world. These stations take hourly measurements of temperature, air pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, rainfall and other conditions.
Aircraft, merchant ships, weather balloons and satellites do the same thing and then transmit the data to weather stations on the ground.
Joining the dots, supercomputers generate weather maps and spew out forecasts by matching them with similar weather patterns recorded in the past.
Meteorologists interpret the computer-generated forecasts by comparing them with different mathematical models and tweaking them by relying on the torrent of real-time data coming from the field.
Conflicting predictive models may offer opposite results. Additionally, pinning down the precise location of the event is notoriously difficult too. The distance between areas that are swamped with snow and ones with only a drizzle can be as short as 30 miles.
Tools like thermometers that monitor vital weather signs are far from accurate. However, there are not enough weather balloons to constantly record conditions in the upper atmosphere, home to the real action.
Given all of the factors that influence it, predicting the weather is an undeniably complex process and, like any process, it can exhibit a lot of variation. However, if you are going to make any big plans based on weather and you want to minimize the variation, it is best to rely on the next-day forecast. Nonetheless, maybe bring a coat with you, just in case
Despite what you may think, forecasting skills have steadily increased over the past 50 years. The flagship computer model used by U.S. forecasters now predicts large-scale weather features eight days out with the same accuracy as five-day forecasts back in the 1980s.
The average highs and lows for any given day are based on statistics for a 30-year period, which are recalculated each decade as part of longstanding meteorological practice around the world. As our climate gradually warms, the averages are going up.
In general, winter nights are warming more dramatically than summer days. Drought-stricken areas are heating up especially fast since dry ground warms the air more quickly.
Even in today’s sophisticated forecast models, small errors grow over time, so it is better to think of that eight-day local forecast for 65-degree days as a balmy week in the 60s.
Small-scale features, such as thunderstorms, are still a challenge to predict far in advance because it is impossible to monitor every inch of air with a weather station.
There are over 11,000 observation stations across the world. These stations take hourly measurements of temperature, air pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, rainfall and other conditions.
Aircraft, merchant ships, weather balloons and satellites do the same thing and then transmit the data to weather stations on the ground.
Joining the dots, supercomputers generate weather maps and spew out forecasts by matching them with similar weather patterns recorded in the past.
Meteorologists interpret the computer-generated forecasts by comparing them with different mathematical models and tweaking them by relying on the torrent of real-time data coming from the field.
Conflicting predictive models may offer opposite results. Additionally, pinning down the precise location of the event is notoriously difficult too. The distance between areas that are swamped with snow and ones with only a drizzle can be as short as 30 miles.
Tools like thermometers that monitor vital weather signs are far from accurate. However, there are not enough weather balloons to constantly record conditions in the upper atmosphere, home to the real action.
Given all of the factors that influence it, predicting the weather is an undeniably complex process and, like any process, it can exhibit a lot of variation. However, if you are going to make any big plans based on weather and you want to minimize the variation, it is best to rely on the next-day forecast. Nonetheless, maybe bring a coat with you, just in case
